A pre-committed operational charter · v1.2 · Majority Opinion Predisposal Strategy
Governing the Majority Opinion Predisposal Strategy on ES & MES futures within the Ekantik 500 active engine. Issued by the operator. Witness-locked. Publicly disclosed. Modification subject to a 48-hour cool-off and written justification.
| Document | Falsifiability Protocol · Locked Operational Charter |
| Version | 1.2 — Fidelity Layer expanded from four to seven criteria. OP-03 reframed as a trailing daily cap (starts at −0.5% NLV, ratchets up with profit buffer); the v1.0 fixed −12 ES point cap is retired. Added OP-05 (weekly sit-down after 2–3 consecutive losing days), OP-06 (bi-weekly size reduction to 1/5 after 2nd consecutive losing week), OP-07 (reinstatement only after 5 good trades at reduced size, witness-countersigned). ED-05 warning/hard-kill split unchanged from v1.1. v1.0 Expression Layer (ED-01..ED-08) unchanged. |
| Reference | FP-MOPS-V1.2-2026-05 |
| Strategy | Majority Opinion Predisposal Strategy · ES / MES Futures |
| Vehicle | Ekantik 500 · Active /ES Engine Layer |
| Issuing entity | Ekantik Capital Advisors LLC · Maple Grove, MN |
| Date locked | ____ May 2026 |
| Distribution | Public · epig500.ekantikcapital.com |
Every credible system pre-defines the conditions under which it admits failure. Most trading operations do not. This one defines two — and runs them in parallel.
The Expression Layer (Articles I–III) defines the precise statistical threshold at which the operator agrees the Majority Opinion Predisposal edge is dead, the stand-down sequence, and the re-deployment gate. The Fidelity Layer (Articles V–VI) defines the criteria under which the operator admits the published method is not what is actually running — independent of whether the edge itself is sound.
The two layers are bound by a single interpretation rule. The edge cannot be declared falsified using data produced while transmission fidelity is in breach. Both layers are reported on the public page in real time.
The operator agrees to declare the edge statistically dead upon satisfaction of any one of the following conditions, evaluated continuously across the documented qualified-trade record:
A qualified trade is one entered and exited under all operative documented rules, unaffected by execution error, platform malfunction, or extraordinary market event. The trigger is satisfied at the close of the trade that first brings any of the conditions to its threshold.
The reference dataset shows documented per-trade EV of +$117 with standard error over a 100-trade window of ~$43. The $0 threshold (ED-01) sits roughly 2.7 standard errors below documented EV — statistical evidence of collapse, not noise. The remaining seven conditions probe different failure topologies (distributional shift, asymmetry decay, outlier dependence, tail-risk breach, ruin-line proximity). The edge is declared dead when any one of the eight fires.
The original v1 specification set a single −30 ES-point kill, calibrated to the worst observed max DD of the reference dataset (−29.14 pts in original order). That calibration was inappropriately tight. Bootstrapping the 227 trades with 50,000 random orderings — preserving the empirical edge but resampling the path — yields the distribution of max DDs that the same edge naturally produces:
1st pct: −75.6 pts · 5th pct: −61.7 · 25th pct: −47.1 · median: −39.6 · 75th pct: −33.8 · 95th pct: −27.8
The observed −29 pt DD therefore sits at the ~93rd percentile of bootstrap orderings — the historical record happened to be on the lucky side of the distribution. A −30 pt kill would fire in approximately 95% of random orderings under the same healthy edge: a kill on noise, not signal. The split-tier replacement, anchored to bootstrap percentiles, preserves the gate's intent while passing the variance-of-the-same-edge test:
ED-05a (warning, −45 pts) sits between the median (−40) and the 25th percentile (−47). Firing here means the operator is in the worse 75% of paths under a known-healthy edge — worth a Tier-2 conditions-reduced response, not a hard cessation. ED-05b (hard kill, −75 pts) sits at the 1st percentile of the bootstrap. 99% of paths under the documented edge stay above this line; crossing it is stronger evidence of edge failure than of variance.
Bootstrap script and result CSV will be published alongside this protocol as bootstrap-ed05.csv for independent verification. Investors at any account size can re-run the analysis using the public reference dataset.
Upon satisfaction of any trigger condition in Article I, immediately and without exception:
The strategy does not return to live deployment until all three conditions are satisfied:
Stand-down requires only evidence that one of the eight Expression-Layer thresholds was crossed. Re-deployment requires evidence of meaningfully positive expectancy (+$50 per trade) plus a battery pass plus written structural diagnosis. Quick to fail; slow to forgive. The asymmetry is deliberate: false positives on cessation are recoverable; false positives on resumption are not.
Any modification to this protocol — thresholds, window sizes, action steps, re-deployment criteria, cool-off periods, or any Fidelity-Layer criterion — is subject to:
Is the published method what is actually running? Each criterion is pre-committed, observable, binary-checkable, and time-bounded — mapping to a distinct layer of operator fidelity: substrate, intraday, structural, cognitive.
Every entry follows the published Majority Opinion Predisposal rule set without modification. The frozen process is the experimental constant; any modification mid-flight resets the evidence window. The witness — not the operator — approves any rule change, subject to the Article IV protocol.
After any closed losing trade, no further entries that session. The day ends on the first loss — regardless of setup quality, conviction, or remaining time. This is the load-bearing intraday rule: it structurally eliminates revenge-trading, instrument-switching, and post-loss impulsivity in a single bound. There is no exception for "the next setup looks good." The day is over.
Cumulative same-day P&L is bounded by a trailing high-water mark floor. The floor starts at −0.5% of NLV (one trade's worth of risk at the architectural anchor) and ratchets up automatically as accumulated profit creates buffer above the prior peak. Replaces the v1.0 fixed −12 ES point cap, which did not scale with account size or with realized profit.
Every qualified trade receives an operator attribution tag — H2 (process breached) or H3 (variance) — logged before the next entry, against a pre-decision log (rationale, expected outcome, frozen-process checklist). H3 is the resting attribution; H2 is the exception. H1 (edge failed) is not an operator attribution and is never applied to a single trade. "Edge failed" is a verdict about the strategy, knowable only across a sample — so it is system-derived: H1 is declared solely by the Expression Gate's rolling-window verdicts (Article I), subject to the Binding Interpretation Rule. H1 is locked out at the per-trade level by design.
2–3 consecutive losing trading days within a single calendar week triggers a mandatory sit-down for the remainder of that week. The engine resumes on the following Monday at standard sizing, pending witness review of the loss cluster. This is the bridge between the intraday discipline (OP-02 / OP-03) and the structural cessation rules (Tier 2 / Tier 3): it dampens variance clustering before it escalates.
A second consecutive losing week (where "losing week" is any week ending net-negative on closed trades) triggers an immediate sizing reduction to 1/5 of normal — for example 1 /MES in place of 1 /ES. The reduction holds until OP-07 reinstatement conditions are met. Daily filings transition to witness oversight for the duration of the reduction window.
Standard sizing reinstates only after 5 good trades at the OP-06 reduced size. A "good trade" is a closed trade with: no OP-rule breach; correct H2/H3 attribution per OP-04; and contribution to a net-positive cumulative P&L across the 5-trade window. Witness countersigns the reinstatement event. If the OP-06 window produces a third consecutive losing week, escalation to Stage-1 Tier-2 cessation is automatic.
| Tier | Trigger | Response | Resume |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1Logged breach | Single isolated breach of OP-02, OP-04, or OP-05 (weekly sit-down event). | Logged within 24h + Discord entry. Witness review within 7 days, written corrective action. Counter resets to zero. No size or operational change. | Immediate; counter restarts at zero. |
| T2Conditions reduced | 2+ breaches of OP-02 or OP-03 in rolling 30 trades. OP-04 H1 misapplication. OP-06 automatic trigger (2nd consecutive losing week). OP-07 reinstatement breach. | Position cut to minimum sizing (1 MES, no scaling, no /ES) for next 20 qualified trades. Daily filing under witness oversight. Counter resets. Trading continues at reduced conditions. | 20 clean minimum-size trades + witness countersignature. |
| T3Full cessation | Any OP-01 breach. Or a second T2 inside rolling 100 trades. | Immediate cessation; new entries → zero next session; open positions exit per plan. Discord entry within 24h with breach, structural cause, remediation pathway. Witness convenes structural review. Protocol update if breach revealed structural inadequacy. | Witness-countersigned remediation artifact + 30-day calendar gap + 20 minimum-size trades. |
Calibration. The first 30 days following public launch are observation-only while baseline adherence is established; the Fidelity Layer is binding from day 31. The Expression Layer (Articles I–III) is binding from day one.
The named witness for this protocol is Manish Dharod, who holds authority over: modification approvals (Article IV), breach tier classifications (Article VI), and Stage-1 resumption events (T2 / T3). The witness signs that protocol was followed; the witness does not endorse the substance of any decision or modification.
witness-audits.json. Without the monthly artifact, the "witness reviews monthly" claim is itself in breach.By signature, the operator attests this protocol was derived prior to the deployment of member capital and is hereby locked as the governing operational charter for the Majority Opinion Predisposal Strategy. Witness signature attests only that the modification protocol was followed.